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Nimba Kwado vs Invincible Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

Nimba Kwado
Nimba Kwado
FT
2 – 0
Invincible Eleven
Invincible Eleven
2/13/2022LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 13Sanniquellie Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Nimba Kwado51%
×Draw28%
Invincible Eleven22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nimba Kwado
1.38
Invincible Eleven
0.80

Nimba Kwado creates 72% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 51 away

creates per match

Nimba Kwado
1.00
Invincible Eleven
0.90

allows per match

Nimba Kwado
0.71
Invincible Eleven
1.76

finishing

Nimba Kwado+0.00on par
Invincible Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nimba Kwado ↓

Invincible Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nimba Kwado or draw
78%
Nimba Kwado or Invincible Eleven
72%
Draw or Invincible Eleven
49%

Winning margin

Nimba Kwado wins by 2+
25%
Invincible Eleven wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nimba Kwado 1+ goals
75%
Nimba Kwado 2+ goals
40%
Nimba Kwado 3+ goals
16%
Invincible Eleven 1+ goals
55%
Invincible Eleven 2+ goals
19%
Invincible Eleven 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nimba Kwado (draw refunded)
70%
Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nimba Kwado at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 48 matches

Invincible Eleven away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nimba Kwado attack 1.00 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.38

Invincible Eleven attack 0.90 + Nimba Kwado defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nimba Kwado scores more
51%
level
28%
Invincible Eleven scores more
22%

Nimba Kwado at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nimba Kwado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Nimba Kwado 2–0 Invincible Eleven

Nimba Kwado beat Invincible Eleven 2-0 in LFA First Division on February 13, 2022.

The match was played at Sanniquellie Sports Stadium in Sanniquellie.