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Niger Tornadoes vs Kano Pillars — NPFL 2019

Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
4/30/2022NPFLNPFL · Round 26Ahmadu Bello Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Niger Tornadoes57%
×Draw28%
Kano Pillars15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niger Tornadoes
1.40
Kano Pillars
0.58

Niger Tornadoes creates 141% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 121 away

creates per match

Niger Tornadoes
1.25
Kano Pillars
0.64

allows per match

Niger Tornadoes
0.52
Kano Pillars
1.54

finishing

Niger Tornadoes+0.00on par
Kano Pillars+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niger Tornadoes ↓

Kano Pillars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Niger Tornadoes or draw
85%
Niger Tornadoes or Kano Pillars
72%
Draw or Kano Pillars
43%

Winning margin

Niger Tornadoes wins by 2+
29%
Kano Pillars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Niger Tornadoes 1+ goals
75%
Niger Tornadoes 2+ goals
41%
Niger Tornadoes 3+ goals
17%
Kano Pillars 1+ goals
44%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
12%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Niger Tornadoes (draw refunded)
79%
Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niger Tornadoes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.52 · 97 matches

Kano Pillars away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.54 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niger Tornadoes attack 1.25 + Kano Pillars defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

Kano Pillars attack 0.64 + Niger Tornadoes defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Niger Tornadoes scores more
57%
level
28%
Kano Pillars scores more
15%

Niger Tornadoes at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Niger Tornadoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Niger Tornadoes 2–1 Kano Pillars

Niger Tornadoes beat Kano Pillars 2-1 in NPFL on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Ahmadu Bello Stadium in Kaduna.