Niendorfer TSV 0–2 Eimsbütteler TV: Result & Stats

Niendorfer TSV

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Eimsbütteler TV

J. Asare 8'

D. Akyol 1'

11/6/2022

Oberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 18Sportanlage Sachsenweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Niendorfer TSV29%

×Draw21%

Eimsbütteler TV50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niendorfer TSVExpected goals in this matchEimsbütteler TV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

2.13

Niendorfer TSV

1.57

Eimsbütteler TV

2.13

Eimsbütteler TV creates 36% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

1.41

creates per match

2.27

2.00

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Niendorfer TSV

1.41

Eimsbütteler TV

2.27

allows per match

Niendorfer TSV

2.00

Eimsbütteler TV

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niendorfer TSV+0.00on par

Eimsbütteler TV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niendorfer TSV ↓

Eimsbütteler TV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Niendorfer TSV or draw

50%

Niendorfer TSV or Eimsbütteler TV

79%

Draw or Eimsbütteler TV

71%

Winning margin

Niendorfer TSV wins by 2+

13%

Eimsbütteler TV wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Niendorfer TSV 1+ goals

79%

Niendorfer TSV 2+ goals

46%

Niendorfer TSV 3+ goals

21%

Eimsbütteler TV 1+ goals

88%

Eimsbütteler TV 2+ goals

63%

Eimsbütteler TV 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Niendorfer TSV (draw refunded)

36%

Eimsbütteler TV (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niendorfer TSV at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

Eimsbütteler TV away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niendorfer TSV attack 1.41 + Eimsbütteler TV defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.57

Eimsbütteler TV attack 2.27 + Niendorfer TSV defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Niendorfer TSV scores more

29%

level

21%

Eimsbütteler TV scores more

50%

Eimsbütteler TV at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Eimsbütteler TV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

D. Akyol

8'

J. Asare

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff