Niendorfer TSV 0–2 Altona 93: Result & Stats

Niendorfer TSV

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Altona 93

A. Gohoua 90+4'

T. A. Behrmann 76'

9/4/2022

Oberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 7Sportanlage Sachsenweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Niendorfer TSV13%

×Draw16%

Altona 9371%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niendorfer TSVExpected goals in this matchAltona 93

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

2.57

Niendorfer TSV

0.99

Altona 93

2.57

Altona 93 creates 160% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

1.41

creates per match

3.14

2.00

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Niendorfer TSV

1.41

Altona 93

3.14

allows per match

Niendorfer TSV

2.00

Altona 93

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niendorfer TSV+0.00on par

Altona 93+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niendorfer TSV ↓

Altona 93 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–210%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Niendorfer TSV or draw

29%

Niendorfer TSV or Altona 93

84%

Draw or Altona 93

87%

Winning margin

Niendorfer TSV wins by 2+

4%

Altona 93 wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Niendorfer TSV 1+ goals

63%

Niendorfer TSV 2+ goals

26%

Niendorfer TSV 3+ goals

8%

Altona 93 1+ goals

92%

Altona 93 2+ goals

72%

Altona 93 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Niendorfer TSV (draw refunded)

15%

Altona 93 (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niendorfer TSV at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

Altona 93 away — creates 3.14, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niendorfer TSV attack 1.41 + Altona 93 defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.99

Altona 93 attack 3.14 + Niendorfer TSV defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Niendorfer TSV scores more

13%

level

16%

Altona 93 scores more

71%

Altona 93 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Altona 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

76'

T. A. Behrmann

90+4'

A. Gohoua

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff