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Tállya vs Jászberényi Vasas — NB III - Northeast 2019

Tállya
Tállya
FT
0 – 0
Jászberényi Vasas
Jászberényi Vasas
9/8/2019NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 6Károlyi Mihály utca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tállya41%
×Draw24%
Jászberényi Vasas35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tállya
1.60
Jászberényi Vasas
1.46

Tállya creates 10% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 66 away

creates per match

Tállya
1.00
Jászberényi Vasas
1.20

allows per match

Tállya
1.73
Jászberényi Vasas
2.21

finishing

Tállya+0.00on par
Jászberényi Vasas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tállya ↓

Jászberényi Vasas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tállya or draw
65%
Tállya or Jászberényi Vasas
76%
Draw or Jászberényi Vasas
59%

Winning margin

Tállya wins by 2+
21%
Jászberényi Vasas wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tállya 1+ goals
80%
Tállya 2+ goals
47%
Tállya 3+ goals
22%
Jászberényi Vasas 1+ goals
77%
Jászberényi Vasas 2+ goals
43%
Jászberényi Vasas 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Tállya (draw refunded)
54%
Jászberényi Vasas (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tállya at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

Jászberényi Vasas away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.21 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tállya attack 1.00 + Jászberényi Vasas defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.60

Jászberényi Vasas attack 1.20 + Tállya defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tállya scores more
41%
level
24%
Jászberényi Vasas scores more
35%

Tállya at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tállya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

NB III - Northeast: Tállya 0–0 Jászberényi Vasas

Tállya and Jászberényi Vasas drew 0-0 in NB III - Northeast on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Károlyi Mihály utca in Ibrány.