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Newport County vs York — League Two 2018

Newport County
Newport County
Preview
14:00
York
York
10/17/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 11Rodney Parade
41%
Newport County
model favours
41%27%32%

York have scored in 36 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Newport County41%
×Draw27%
York32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newport County
1.37
York
1.17

Newport County creates 17% more chances

Season form · 163 home / 15 away

creates per match

Newport County
1.34
York
1.13

allows per match

Newport County
1.21
York
1.40

finishing

Newport County+0.00on par
York+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Newport County or draw
68%
Newport County or York
73%
Draw or York
59%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+
19%
York wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals
75%
Newport County 2+ goals
40%
Newport County 3+ goals
16%
York 1+ goals
69%
York 2+ goals
33%
York 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)
56%
York (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.21 · 163 matches

York away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.34 + York defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.37

York attack 1.13 + Newport County defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Newport County scores more
41%
level
27%
York scores more
32%

Newport County at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (60% and 83% over 2.5)
  • Newport County score first in only 30% of matches
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time
  • York score first in only 33% of matches
  • Newport County and York have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
County
DLWWW
York
LLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Newport County host York

October 17, 2026: Newport County take on York in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Newport County host York at Rodney Parade.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.