Newport County 4–2 Tranmere: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Tranmere

D. Telford 90+2', 57' (pen)

F. Azaz 88'

A. Lewis 49'

M. Demetriou 84' (OG)

J. Dacres-Cogley 65'

2/26/2022

League Two · Round 34Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Newport County40%

×Draw26%

Tranmere34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.23

Newport County

1.36

Tranmere

1.23

Newport County creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

1.31

creates per match

1.15

1.31

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Newport County

1.31

Tranmere

1.15

allows per match

Newport County

1.31

Tranmere

1.42

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Newport County-0.31scores less

Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

66%

Newport County or Tranmere

74%

Draw or Tranmere

60%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

18%

Tranmere wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

74%

Newport County 2+ goals

39%

Newport County 3+ goals

16%

Tranmere 1+ goals

71%

Tranmere 2+ goals

35%

Tranmere 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

54%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.31 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.36

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Newport County defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Newport County scores more

40%

level

26%

Tranmere scores more

34%

Newport County at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

D. Telford

Newport County · F

9.0

Match Events

36'

48'

49'

53'

55'

57'

D. TelfordPenalty

65'

J. Dacres-Cogley↳ K. Hemmings

80'

A. Fisher← R. Street

84'

M. DemetriouOwn goal

88'

F. Azaz

90+5'

M. Dolan← O. Cooper

90+2'

D. Telford

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportTranmere

Overview

52%Possession48%

17Total Shots6

8Corners1

10Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots6

10On Target2

4Off Target2

3Blocked2

12Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

362Total Passes331

223Accurate Passes182

62%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1