Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Newport County vs Shrewsbury — League Two 2018

Newport County
Newport County
Preview
19:45
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
12/29/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 22Rodney Parade
43%
Newport County
model favours
43%29%28%

Newport County score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Newport County43%
×Draw29%
Shrewsbury28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newport County
1.21
Shrewsbury
0.91

Newport County creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Newport County
1.24
Shrewsbury
0.75

allows per match

Newport County
1.07
Shrewsbury
1.17

finishing

Newport County-0.10scores less
Shrewsbury-0.11scores less

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Newport County or draw
72%
Newport County or Shrewsbury
71%
Draw or Shrewsbury
57%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+
19%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals
70%
Newport County 2+ goals
34%
Newport County 3+ goals
12%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
60%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
23%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)
61%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.07 · 7 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.17 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.24 + Shrewsbury defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Shrewsbury attack 0.75 + Newport County defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Newport County scores more
43%
level
29%
Shrewsbury scores more
28%

Newport County at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Newport County
Balanced
Shrewsbury
Direct / counter-attacking
49%Possession42%
67%Pass accuracy58%
11.6Shots11.5
1.16xGBiggest gap0.93
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Newport CountyShrewsbury

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
County
DLWWW
Shrewsbury
WWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Newport County host Shrewsbury

December 29, 2026: Newport County take on Shrewsbury in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Newport County host Shrewsbury at Rodney Parade.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.