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Newport County vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Newport County
Newport County
Preview
19:45
Salford City
Salford City
2/9/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 30Rodney Parade
Big match
39%
Newport County
model favours
39%26%35%

Newport County score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Newport County39%
×Draw26%
Salford City35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newport County
1.41
Salford City
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Newport County
1.24
Salford City
1.55

allows per match

Newport County
1.07
Salford City
1.58

finishing

Newport County-0.10scores less
Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Newport County or draw
65%
Newport County or Salford City
74%
Draw or Salford City
61%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+
18%
Salford City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals
76%
Newport County 2+ goals
41%
Newport County 3+ goals
17%
Salford City 1+ goals
73%
Salford City 2+ goals
38%
Salford City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)
53%
Salford City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.07 · 7 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.24 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Salford City attack 1.55 + Newport County defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Newport County scores more
39%
level
26%
Salford City scores more
35%

Newport County at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Salford City score first in only 33% of matches
  • Salford City have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Newport County sit 20, Salford City 4 in the table
  • Salford City fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Newport County
Balanced
Salford City
Attack-heavy
48%Possession52%
67%Pass accuracy67%
11.4Shots13.2
1.12xGBiggest gap1.73
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Newport CountySalford City

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Newport County
1
Draws
7
Salford City
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 60%
3–10–11–13–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
County
DLWWW
City
WLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Newport County host Salford City

February 9, 2027: Newport County take on Salford City in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Newport County host Salford City at Rodney Parade.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.