Newport County 2–3 Salford City: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Salford City

O. Bogle 75'

S. Bennett 72'

R. Leak 83'

C. Norman 57' (OG)

L. Bolton 54'

8/16/2022

League Two · Round 4Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Newport County38%

×Draw25%

Salford City37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchSalford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.43

Newport County

1.45

Salford City

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.31

creates per match

1.55

1.31

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Newport County

1.31

Salford City

1.55

allows per match

Newport County

1.31

Salford City

1.58

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Newport County-0.31scores less

Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Salford City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

63%

Newport County or Salford City

75%

Draw or Salford City

62%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

18%

Salford City wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

77%

Newport County 2+ goals

42%

Newport County 3+ goals

18%

Salford City 1+ goals

76%

Salford City 2+ goals

42%

Salford City 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

51%

Salford City (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.31 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Salford City attack 1.55 + Newport County defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Newport County scores more

38%

level

25%

Salford City scores more

37%

Newport County at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

E. Watt

Salford City · M

7.7

Match Events

10'

Richard Nartey

18'

Mickey Demetriou

39'

Adam Lewis

52'

N. Moriah-Welsh← S. Bowen

54'

L. Bolton↳ M. Lund

57'

C. NormanOwn goal

58'

68'

72'

73'

74'

75'

83'

R. Leak↳ E. Watt

85'

M. Smith← M. Lund

90+1'

C. Zimba← J. Waite

90+4'

K. Berkoe← C. Hendry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportSalford

Overview

33%Possession67%

11Total Shots13

4Corners4

10Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots13

3On Target6

6Off Target3

2Blocked4

8Inside Box7

3Outside Box6

Passing

33%Possession67%

269Total Passes550

172Accurate Passes466

64%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0