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Newport County vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Newport County
Newport County
Preview
15:00
Oldham
Oldham
12/19/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 20Rodney Parade
Big match
37%
Newport County
model favours
37%26%37%

Newport County win just 15% against the top half (vs 41% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Newport County37%
×Draw26%
Oldham37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newport County
1.34
Oldham
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 47 away

creates per match

Newport County
1.25
Oldham
1.23

allows per match

Newport County
1.47
Oldham
1.43

finishing

Newport County+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Newport County or draw
63%
Newport County or Oldham
74%
Draw or Oldham
63%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+
17%
Oldham wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals
74%
Newport County 2+ goals
39%
Newport County 3+ goals
15%
Oldham 1+ goals
74%
Oldham 2+ goals
39%
Oldham 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)
50%
Oldham (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.47 · 53 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.25 + Oldham defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Oldham attack 1.23 + Newport County defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Newport County scores more
37%
level
26%
Oldham scores more
37%

Newport County at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Newport County sit 20, Oldham 10 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Newport County
Balanced
Oldham
Attack-heavy
48%Possession47%
69%Pass accuracy63%
9.9Shots13.0
0.81xGBiggest gap1.70
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Newport CountyOldham

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Newport County
1
Draws
1
Oldham
Avg goals: 3.4BTTS: 40%
3–20–32–03–31–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
County
LWWWW
Oldham
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Newport County host Oldham

December 19, 2026: Newport County take on Oldham in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Newport County host Oldham at Rodney Parade.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.