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Newport County vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Newport County
Newport County
Preview
14:00
Grimsby
Grimsby
9/26/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Rodney Parade
Big match
40%
Grimsby
model favours
33%26%40%

Newport County score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Newport County33%
×Draw26%
Grimsby40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newport County
1.22
Grimsby
1.37

Grimsby creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Newport County
1.24
Grimsby
1.67

allows per match

Newport County
1.07
Grimsby
1.20

finishing

Newport County-0.10scores less
Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Newport County or draw
60%
Newport County or Grimsby
74%
Draw or Grimsby
67%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+
14%
Grimsby wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals
70%
Newport County 2+ goals
34%
Newport County 3+ goals
12%
Grimsby 1+ goals
75%
Grimsby 2+ goals
40%
Grimsby 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)
45%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.07 · 7 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.20 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.24 + Grimsby defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Grimsby attack 1.67 + Newport County defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Newport County scores more
33%
level
26%
Grimsby scores more
40%

Grimsby at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Newport County sit 20, Grimsby 6 in the table
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged just 1.4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Newport County
Balanced
Grimsby
Attack-heavy
49%Possession52%
67%Pass accuracy68%
11.6Shots12.6
1.19xGBiggest gap1.65
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Newport CountyGrimsby

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Newport County
4
Draws
4
Grimsby
Avg goals: 1.4BTTS: 30%
0–01–20–10–00–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
County
DLWWW
Grimsby
DDWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Newport County vs Grimsby — Match Preview

Newport County face Grimsby on September 26, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Newport County host Grimsby at Rodney Parade.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.