Newport County vs Gillingham: Preview & Prediction

Newport County

Preview

18:45

Gillingham

4/27/2027

League Two · Round 44Rodney Parade

Big match

46%

Newport County

model favours

46%26%27%

Newport County score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Newport County46%

×Draw26%

Gillingham27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.06

Newport County

1.46

Gillingham

1.06

Newport County creates 38% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.24

creates per match

1.05

1.07

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Newport County

1.24

Gillingham

1.05

allows per match

Newport County

1.07

Gillingham

1.68

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Newport County-0.10scores less

Gillingham-0.32scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

73%

Newport County or Gillingham

74%

Draw or Gillingham

54%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

23%

Gillingham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

77%

Newport County 2+ goals

43%

Newport County 3+ goals

18%

Gillingham 1+ goals

65%

Gillingham 2+ goals

29%

Gillingham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

63%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.07 · 7 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.68 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.24 + Gillingham defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46

Gillingham attack 1.05 + Newport County defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Newport County scores more

46%

level

26%

Gillingham scores more

27%

Newport County at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Newport County have won 6 of the last 8 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Newport County

Balanced

Gillingham

Balanced

49%PossessionBiggest gap47%

67%Pass accuracy64%

11.6Shots11.1

1.19xG1.20

Newport CountyGillingham

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

6

Newport County

0

Draws

2

Gillingham

Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 50%

2–31–33–12–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

County

DLWWW

Gillingham

WLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Newport County vs Gillingham — Match Preview

Newport County face Gillingham on April 27, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Newport County host Gillingham at Rodney Parade.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Newport County vs Gillingham — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Newport County vs Gillingham — Match Preview