Newport County 2–0 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gillingham

P. Farquharson 56', 43'

11/19/2022

League Two · Round 19Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Newport County41%

×Draw26%

Gillingham33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.26

Newport County

1.42

Gillingham

1.26

Newport County creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.31

creates per match

1.21

1.31

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Newport County

1.31

Gillingham

1.21

allows per match

Newport County

1.31

Gillingham

1.53

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Newport County-0.31scores less

Gillingham-0.29scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

67%

Newport County or Gillingham

74%

Draw or Gillingham

59%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

19%

Gillingham wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

76%

Newport County 2+ goals

41%

Newport County 3+ goals

17%

Gillingham 1+ goals

72%

Gillingham 2+ goals

36%

Gillingham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

55%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.31 + Gillingham defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

Gillingham attack 1.21 + Newport County defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Newport County scores more

41%

level

26%

Gillingham scores more

33%

Newport County at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

P. Farquharson

Newport County · D

9.0

Match Events

15'

Mikael Mandron

22'

Cheye Alexander

43'

P. Farquharson↳ A. Lewis

46'

S. O'Keefe← C. Alexander

56'

P. Farquharson↳ C. Norman

59'

A. MacDonald← D. Jefferies

59'

S. Kashket← B. Reeves

66'

69'

71'

72'

81'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportGillingham

Overview

53%Possession47%

9Total Shots13

7Corners2

12Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots13

3On Target2

6Off Target9

0Blocked2

7Inside Box9

2Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

338Total Passes302

189Accurate Passes158

56%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1