Newport County 2–2 Crewe: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Crewe

O. Bogle 90+1', 77' (pen)

L. Brook 90+3'

R. Adebisi 56'

5/8/2023

League Two · Round 46Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Newport County39%

×Draw26%

Crewe35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchCrewe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.31

Newport County

1.38

Crewe

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.31

creates per match

1.30

1.31

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Newport County

1.31

Crewe

1.30

allows per match

Newport County

1.31

Crewe

1.44

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Newport County-0.31scores less

Crewe-0.05on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Crewe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

65%

Newport County or Crewe

74%

Draw or Crewe

61%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

18%

Crewe wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

75%

Newport County 2+ goals

40%

Newport County 3+ goals

16%

Crewe 1+ goals

73%

Crewe 2+ goals

38%

Crewe 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

52%

Crewe (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.31 + Crewe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Crewe attack 1.30 + Newport County defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Newport County scores more

39%

level

26%

Crewe scores more

35%

Newport County at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

O. Bogle

Newport County · F

8.9

Match Events

43'

Scot Bennett

52'

Conor Thomas

53'

J. Tabiner← C. Long

54'

C. McNeill← H. Charsley

55'

C. Kavanagh← K. Rai

56'

R. Adebisi↳ C. Thomas

65'

T. Uwakwe← C. Thomas

69'

J. Waite← A. Lewis

69'

N. Moriah-Welsh← S. Bennett

77'

O. BoglePenalty

78'

R. Griffiths← R. Finnigan

79'

Z. Williams← C. Baker-Richardson

79'

C. Colkett← R. Adebisi

90+1'

O. Bogle↳ C. Kavanagh

90+3'

L. Brook↳ D. Agyei

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportCrewe

Overview

51%Possession49%

23Total Shots12

12Corners1

11Fouls7

Shots

23Total Shots12

7On Target6

8Off Target3

8Blocked3

19Inside Box6

4Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

326Total Passes327

208Accurate Passes208

64%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0