Newport County vs Crawley Town

Newport County

Preview

14:00

Crawley Town

4/10/2027

League Two · Round 40Rodney Parade

Big match

43%

Newport County

model favours

43%25%32%

Newport County score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

over 2.5 goals

57%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Newport County43%

×Draw25%

Crawley Town32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.29

Newport County

1.52

Crawley Town

1.29

Newport County creates 18% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

1.24

creates per match

1.51

1.07

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Newport County

1.24

Crawley Town

1.51

allows per match

Newport County

1.07

Crawley Town

1.80

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.59scores less than expected

finishing

Newport County-0.10scores less

Crawley Town-0.59scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

68%

Newport County or Crawley Town

75%

Draw or Crawley Town

57%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

21%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

78%

Newport County 2+ goals

45%

Newport County 3+ goals

20%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

72%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

37%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

57%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.07 · 7 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.24 + Crawley Town defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Crawley Town attack 1.51 + Newport County defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Newport County scores more

43%

level

25%

Crawley Town scores more

32%

Newport County at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Newport County

Balanced

Crawley Town

Balanced

49%Possession55%

67%Pass accuracy71%

11.6Shots12.7

1.19xGBiggest gap1.41

Newport CountyCrawley Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2

Newport County

3

Draws

5

Crawley Town

Avg goals: 3BTTS: 70%

0–22–10–41–42–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

County

DLWWW

Town

DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Newport County host Crawley Town

April 10, 2027: Newport County take on Crawley Town in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Newport County host Crawley Town at Rodney Parade.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Newport County vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Preview: Newport County host Crawley Town