Newport County vs Chesterfield

Newport County

Preview

15:00

Chesterfield

10/31/2026

League Two · Round 14Rodney Parade

Big match

43%

Newport County

model favours

43%26%31%

Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

under 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Newport County43%

×Draw26%

Chesterfield31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchChesterfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.15

Newport County

1.41

Chesterfield

1.15

Newport County creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

1.24

creates per match

1.22

1.07

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Newport County

1.24

Chesterfield

1.22

allows per match

Newport County

1.07

Chesterfield

1.57

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Newport County-0.10scores less

Chesterfield+0.09on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Chesterfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

69%

Newport County or Chesterfield

74%

Draw or Chesterfield

57%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

20%

Chesterfield wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

76%

Newport County 2+ goals

41%

Newport County 3+ goals

17%

Chesterfield 1+ goals

68%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

32%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

58%

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.07 · 7 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.57 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.24 + Chesterfield defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Chesterfield attack 1.22 + Newport County defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Newport County scores more

43%

level

26%

Chesterfield scores more

31%

Newport County at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Newport County score first in only 30% of matches
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings
Newport County sit 20, Chesterfield 7 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Newport County

Balanced

Chesterfield

Possession-dominant

49%PossessionBiggest gap60%

67%Pass accuracy78%

11.6Shots11.9

1.16xG1.32

Newport CountyChesterfield

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

3

Newport County

1

Draws

4

Chesterfield

Avg goals: 3.4BTTS: 75%

2–11–41–20–30–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

County

DLWWW

Chesterfield

LDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Newport County host Chesterfield

October 31, 2026: Newport County take on Chesterfield in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Newport County host Chesterfield at Rodney Parade.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Newport County vs Chesterfield — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Preview: Newport County host Chesterfield