Newport County 2–1 Barrow: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Barrow

R. Taylor 48'

L. Shephard 19'

L. Hardcastle 28'

9/19/2020

League Two · Round 2Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Newport County49%

×Draw25%

Barrow26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchBarrow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.09

Newport County

1.61

Barrow

1.09

Newport County creates 48% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.31

creates per match

0.87

1.31

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Newport County

1.31

Barrow

0.87

allows per match

Newport County

1.31

Barrow

1.91

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Newport County-0.31scores less

Barrow+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Barrow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

74%

Newport County or Barrow

75%

Draw or Barrow

51%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

26%

Barrow wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

80%

Newport County 2+ goals

48%

Newport County 3+ goals

22%

Barrow 1+ goals

66%

Barrow 2+ goals

30%

Barrow 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

66%

Barrow (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.91 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.31 + Barrow defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.61

Barrow attack 0.87 + Newport County defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Newport County scores more

49%

level

25%

Barrow scores more

26%

Newport County at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

R. Taylor

Newport County · F

7.7

Match Events

12'

Kyle Howkins

19'

L. Shephard↳ S. Twine

23'

S. Wilson← K. Ntlhe

28'

L. Hardcastle↳ L. James

48'

57'

67'

70'

77'

T. Abrahams← R. Taylor

82'

J. Hindle← C. Brown

86'

J. Labadie← S. Twine

87'

A. Baker← L. Shephard

90'

Tristan Abrahams

90'

James Jones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportBarrow

Overview

55%Possession45%

13Total Shots5

3Corners2

14Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots5

3On Target2

6Off Target1

4Blocked2

6Inside Box1

7Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

405Total Passes326

314Accurate Passes228

78%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1