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Newport County vs Barnet — League Two 2018

Newport County
Newport County
Preview
15:00
Barnet
Barnet
1/1/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 23Rodney Parade
Big match
37%
Newport County
model favours
37%26%37%

Barnet are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Newport County37%
×Draw26%
Barnet37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newport County
1.29
Barnet
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Newport County
1.26
Barnet
1.43

allows per match

Newport County
1.18
Barnet
1.31

finishing

Newport County+0.07on par
Barnet-0.21scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Barnet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Newport County or draw
63%
Newport County or Barnet
74%
Draw or Barnet
63%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+
16%
Barnet wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals
72%
Newport County 2+ goals
37%
Newport County 3+ goals
14%
Barnet 1+ goals
73%
Barnet 2+ goals
37%
Barnet 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)
50%
Barnet (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.18 · 6 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.26 + Barnet defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Barnet attack 1.43 + Newport County defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Newport County scores more
37%
level
26%
Barnet scores more
37%

Newport County at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Newport County score first in only 30% of matches
  • Both teams score in 80% of Barnet’s matches
  • Barnet score first in only 30% of matches
  • Barnet have scored in 7 games running
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (60% and 70% over 2.5)
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Newport County
Balanced
Barnet
Possession-dominant
48%Possession56%
67%Pass accuracy68%
11.6Shots13.7
1.19xGBiggest gap1.77
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Newport CountyBarnet

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Newport County
3
Draws
0
Barnet
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 80%
2–10–02–24–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
County
DLWWW
Barnet
DDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Newport County host Barnet

January 1, 2027: Newport County take on Barnet in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Newport County host Barnet at Rodney Parade.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.