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Newport City vs Pontypridd Town — League #111 2026

Newport City
Newport City
Preview
18:30
Pontypridd Town
Pontypridd Town
10/23/2026League #111League #111 · South - 12
48%
Newport City
model favours
48%27%26%
1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Newport City48%
×Draw27%
Pontypridd Town26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newport City
1.45
Pontypridd Town
0.99

Newport City creates 46% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Newport City
1.40
Pontypridd Town
1.38

allows per match

Newport City
0.60
Pontypridd Town
1.50

finishing

Newport City+0.00on par
Pontypridd Town+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport City ↓

Pontypridd Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Newport City or draw
74%
Newport City or Pontypridd Town
73%
Draw or Pontypridd Town
52%

Winning margin

Newport City wins by 2+
24%
Pontypridd Town wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Newport City 1+ goals
77%
Newport City 2+ goals
42%
Newport City 3+ goals
18%
Pontypridd Town 1+ goals
63%
Pontypridd Town 2+ goals
26%
Pontypridd Town 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Newport City (draw refunded)
65%
Pontypridd Town (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Pontypridd Town away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport City attack 1.40 + Pontypridd Town defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Pontypridd Town attack 1.38 + Newport City defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Newport City scores more
48%
level
27%
Pontypridd Town scores more
26%

Newport City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Newport City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
City
LLLWD
Town
DDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Newport City face Pontypridd Town (League #111)

League #111 returns with Newport City hosting Pontypridd Town. Match starts October 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.