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Newport City vs Afan Lido — League #111 2026

Newport City
Newport City
Preview
18:30
Afan Lido
Afan Lido
4/2/2027League #111League #111 · South - 28
60%
Newport City
model favours
60%23%17%

Newport City have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Newport City60%
×Draw23%
Afan Lido17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newport City
1.82
Afan Lido
0.86

Newport City creates 112% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 33 away

creates per match

Newport City
1.40
Afan Lido
1.12

allows per match

Newport City
0.60
Afan Lido
2.24

finishing

Newport City+0.00on par
Afan Lido+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport City ↓

Afan Lido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Newport City or draw
83%
Newport City or Afan Lido
77%
Draw or Afan Lido
40%

Winning margin

Newport City wins by 2+
35%
Afan Lido wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Newport City 1+ goals
84%
Newport City 2+ goals
54%
Newport City 3+ goals
27%
Afan Lido 1+ goals
58%
Afan Lido 2+ goals
21%
Afan Lido 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Newport City (draw refunded)
78%
Afan Lido (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Afan Lido away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.24 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport City attack 1.40 + Afan Lido defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.82

Afan Lido attack 1.12 + Newport City defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Newport City scores more
60%
level
23%
Afan Lido scores more
17%

Newport City at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Newport City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
City
LLLWD
Lido
LLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Newport City face Afan Lido (League #111)

League #111 returns with Newport City hosting Afan Lido. Match starts April 2, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.