Newcastle 6–1 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

6 – 1

HT: 5 – 0

Tottenham

C. Wilson 67'

A. Isak 21', 19'

J. Murphy 9', 2'

Joelinton 6'

H. Kane 49'

4/23/2023

Premier League · Round 32St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Newcastle50%

×Draw23%

Tottenham27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.25

Newcastle

1.77

Tottenham

1.25

Newcastle creates 42% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 31 away

2.05

creates per match

1.06

1.44

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Newcastle

2.05

Tottenham

1.06

allows per match

Newcastle

1.44

Tottenham

1.50

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Newcastle+0.05on par

Tottenham+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

73%

Newcastle or Tottenham

77%

Draw or Tottenham

50%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

27%

Tottenham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

83%

Newcastle 2+ goals

53%

Newcastle 3+ goals

26%

Tottenham 1+ goals

71%

Tottenham 2+ goals

36%

Tottenham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

65%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.44 · 21 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.50 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.05 + Tottenham defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.77

Tottenham attack 1.06 + Newcastle defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Newcastle scores more

50%

level

23%

Tottenham scores more

27%

Newcastle at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Murphy

Newcastle · F

8.7

Match Events

2'

6'

9'

19'

21'

A. Isak↳ S. Longstaff

23'

D. Sánchez← P. Sarr

28'

Dejan Kulusevski

34'

Oliver Skipp

46'

F. Forster← H. Lloris

49'

H. Kane↳ P. Højbjerg

66'

M. Almirón← J. Murphy

66'

C. Wilson← A. Isak

67'

C. Wilson

70'

Javier Manquillo← K. Trippier

70'

A. Gordon← Bruno Guimarães

72'

A. Danjuma← D. Kulusevski

74'

Cristian Romero

74'

J. Lascelles← F. Schär

83'

Richarlison← Son Heung-Min

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleTottenham

Overview

57%Possession43%

25Total Shots11

3.85Expected Goals (xG)1.03

9Corners3

7Fouls13

Shots

25Total Shots11

8On Target3

5Off Target5

12Blocked3

19Inside Box8

6Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

516Total Passes401

446Accurate Passes317

86%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls13

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0

Premier League: Newcastle 6–1 Tottenham

Newcastle beat Tottenham 6-1 in Premier League on April 23, 2023.

Goals: J. Murphy (2', 9'), Joelinton (6'), A. Isak (19', 21'), H. Kane (49'), C. Wilson (67').

Newcastle controlled possession (57%) and registered 25 shots to 11.

The match was played at St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne.

Newcastle vs Tottenham — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Newcastle 6–1 Tottenham