Newcastle 2–2 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Tottenham

J. Willock 85'

Joelinton 28'

H. Kane 34', 30'

4/4/2021

Premier League · Round 30St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Newcastle50%

×Draw23%

Tottenham27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.29

Newcastle

1.83

Tottenham

1.29

Newcastle creates 42% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 34 away

2.04

creates per match

1.12

1.46

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Newcastle

2.04

Tottenham

1.12

allows per match

Newcastle

1.46

Tottenham

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Newcastle+0.00on par

Tottenham+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

73%

Newcastle or Tottenham

77%

Draw or Tottenham

50%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

28%

Tottenham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

84%

Newcastle 2+ goals

54%

Newcastle 3+ goals

28%

Tottenham 1+ goals

72%

Tottenham 2+ goals

37%

Tottenham 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

65%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.04 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.83

Tottenham attack 1.12 + Newcastle defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Newcastle scores more

50%

level

23%

Tottenham scores more

27%

Newcastle at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

H. Kane

Tottenham · F

8.5

Match Events

28'

Joelinton↳ S. Longstaff

30'

H. Kane

34'

H. Kane↳ T. Ndombèlé

45'

Giovani Lo Celso

46'

Son Heung-Min← Carlos Vinícius

63'

Japhet Tanganga

64'

E. Lamela← Lucas Moura

65'

Paul Dummett

71'

A. Saint-Maximin← D. Gayle

72'

Jonjo Shelvey

79'

J. Willock← E. Krafth

83'

Javi Manquillo← J. Murphy

85'

Miguel Almirón

85'

J. Willock

88'

G. Bale← G. Lo Celso

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleTottenham

Overview

41%Possession59%

22Total Shots11

7Corners3

13Fouls14

Shots

22Total Shots11

6On Target5

7Off Target4

9Blocked2

17Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

348Total Passes521

257Accurate Passes427

74%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3

Premier League: Newcastle 2–2 Tottenham

Newcastle and Tottenham drew 2-2 in Premier League on April 4, 2021.

Goals: Joelinton (28'), H. Kane (30', 34'), J. Willock (85').

Tottenham controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 22.

The match was played at St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne.

Newcastle vs Tottenham — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Newcastle 2–2 Tottenham