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Newcastle vs Tottenham — Premier League 2026

Newcastle
Newcastle
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Tottenham
Tottenham
M. Ritchie 56'
H. Kane 90', 60'
Son Heung-Min 27'
7/15/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 36St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Newcastle50%
×Draw23%
Tottenham27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle
1.83
Tottenham
1.29

Newcastle creates 42% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 34 away

creates per match

Newcastle
2.04
Tottenham
1.12

allows per match

Newcastle
1.46
Tottenham
1.62

finishing

Newcastle+0.00on par
Tottenham+0.29scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Tottenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw
73%
Newcastle or Tottenham
77%
Draw or Tottenham
50%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+
28%
Tottenham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals
84%
Newcastle 2+ goals
54%
Newcastle 3+ goals
28%
Tottenham 1+ goals
72%
Tottenham 2+ goals
37%
Tottenham 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)
65%
Tottenham (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.04 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.83

Tottenham attack 1.12 + Newcastle defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Newcastle scores more
50%
level
23%
Tottenham scores more
27%

Newcastle at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
H. KaneTottenhamTottenham · F
8.5

Match Events

27'
Son Heung-Min↳ G. Lo Celso
30'
Toby Alderweireld
35'
Federico Fernández
55'
V. Lazaro← D. Yedlin
56'
M. Ritchie
57'
S. Bergwijn← Lucas Moura
60'
H. Kane↳ S. Bergwijn
62'
E. Lamela← G. Lo Celso
65'
Jonjo Shelvey
69'
Joelinton← D. Gayle
74'
Harry Kane
85'
Ben Davies
86'
M. Longstaff← N. Bentaleb
90+1'
J. Vertonghen← H. Kane
90'
H. Kane

Possession

52%Newcastle

Shots

22Newcastle

Pass accuracy

50%Newcastle

Statistics

NewcastleTottenham
Overview
52%Possession48%
22Total Shots8
5Corners4
6Fouls13
Shots
22Total Shots8
6On Target5
10Off Target1
6Blocked2
13Inside Box5
9Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
503Total Passes456
440Accurate Passes394
87%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
6Fouls13
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Newcastle vs Tottenham

Tottenham beat Newcastle 3-1 in Premier League on July 15, 2020.

Goals: Son Heung-Min (27'), M. Ritchie (56'), H. Kane (60', 90').

Newcastle controlled possession (52%) and registered 22 shots to 8.

The match was played at St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne.