Newcastle 1–2 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Tottenham

Joselu 11'

D. Alli 18'

J. Vertonghen 8'

8/11/2018

Premier League · Round 1St James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Newcastle52%

×Draw23%

Tottenham26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.27

Newcastle

1.88

Tottenham

1.27

Newcastle creates 48% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 37 away

2.13

creates per match

1.17

1.38

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Newcastle

2.13

Tottenham

1.17

allows per match

Newcastle

1.38

Tottenham

1.62

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Newcastle-0.13scores less

Tottenham+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

74%

Newcastle or Tottenham

77%

Draw or Tottenham

48%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

29%

Tottenham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

85%

Newcastle 2+ goals

56%

Newcastle 3+ goals

29%

Tottenham 1+ goals

72%

Tottenham 2+ goals

36%

Tottenham 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

67%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.13 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.88

Tottenham attack 1.17 + Newcastle defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Newcastle scores more

52%

level

23%

Tottenham scores more

26%

Newcastle at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Joselu

Newcastle · F

7.8

Match Events

8'

J. Vertonghen↳ D. Sánchez

11'

18'

42'

58'

59'

68'

68'

M. Dembélé← Lucas Moura

69'

C. Atsu← M. Ritchie

80'

Son Heung-Min← D. Alli

81'

Y. Muto← Ayoze Pérez

88'

L. Amos← E. Dier

90'

Mohamed Diamé

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleTottenham

Overview

40%Possession60%

15Total Shots15

3Corners5

11Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots15

2On Target5

8Off Target7

5Blocked3

9Inside Box12

6Outside Box3

Passing

40%Possession60%

387Total Passes573

268Accurate Passes467

69%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0