Newcastle 2–0 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nottingham Forest

C. Wilson 78'

F. Schär 58'

8/6/2022

Premier League · Round 1St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Newcastle55%

×Draw22%

Nottingham Forest23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.21

Newcastle

1.96

Nottingham Forest

1.21

Newcastle creates 62% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 39 away

2.13

creates per match

1.00

1.43

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Newcastle

2.13

Nottingham Forest

1.00

allows per match

Newcastle

1.43

Nottingham Forest

1.78

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

Newcastle-0.05on par

Nottingham Forest+0.38scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

77%

Newcastle or Nottingham Forest

78%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

45%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

32%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

86%

Newcastle 2+ goals

58%

Newcastle 3+ goals

31%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

70%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

34%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

70%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.43 · 25 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.78 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.13 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.96

Nottingham Forest attack 1.00 + Newcastle defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Newcastle scores more

55%

level

22%

Nottingham Forest scores more

23%

Newcastle at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

F. Schär

Newcastle · D

8.5

Match Events

15'

23'

56'

58'

63'

T. Awoniyi← S. Surridge

75'

O. Mangala← L. OBrien

78'

C. Wilson↳ Joelinton

80'

S. Longstaff← J. Willock

81'

R. Fraser← M. Almirón

83'

A. Mighten← M. Niakhaté

89'

C. Wood← C. Wilson

90+3'

S. Botman← Bruno Guimarães

90'

J. Murphy← A. Saint-Maximin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleNottingham

Overview

61%Possession39%

23Total Shots5

11Corners1

9Fouls14

Shots

23Total Shots5

10On Target0

8Off Target3

5Blocked2

16Inside Box4

7Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

469Total Passes294

379Accurate Passes207

81%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0