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Newcastle vs Manchester City — Premier League 2026

Newcastle
Newcastle
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Manchester City
Manchester City
K. Trippier 54'
C. Wilson 39'
M. Almirón 28'
Bernardo Silva 64'
E. Haaland 61'
İ. Gündoğan 5'
8/21/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Newcastle39%
×Draw23%
Manchester City38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle
1.63
Manchester City
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 31 away

creates per match

Newcastle
2.04
Manchester City
1.76

allows per match

Newcastle
1.46
Manchester City
1.21

finishing

Newcastle+0.00on par
Manchester City-0.21scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Manchester City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw
62%
Newcastle or Manchester City
77%
Draw or Manchester City
61%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+
19%
Manchester City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals
80%
Newcastle 2+ goals
48%
Newcastle 3+ goals
22%
Manchester City 1+ goals
80%
Manchester City 2+ goals
48%
Manchester City 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)
51%
Manchester City (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.21 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.04 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.63

Manchester City attack 1.76 + Newcastle defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Newcastle scores more
39%
level
23%
Manchester City scores more
38%

Newcastle at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
K. De BruyneManchester CityManchester City · M
8.5

Match Events

5'
İ. Gündoğan↳ Bernardo Silva
8'
Bruno Guimarães
18'
João Cancelo
21'
Rúben Dias← N. Aké
28'
M. Almirón↳ A. Saint-Maximin
29'
Allan Saint-MaximinGoal confirmed
34'
Fabian Schär
39'
C. Wilson↳ A. Saint-Maximin
52'
John Stones
54'
K. Trippier
61'
E. Haaland↳ Rodri
64'
Bernardo Silva↳ K. De Bruyne
70'
S. Longstaff← J. Willock
70'
C. Wood← C. Wilson
75'
Kieran TrippierRed card cancelled
76'
Kieran Trippier
83'
J. Murphy← M. Almirón
90+2'
Joelinton
90+5'
E. Krafth← D. Burn

Possession

31%Newcastle

Shots

12Newcastle

Pass accuracy

44%Newcastle

Statistics

NewcastleManchester
Overview
31%Possession69%
12Total Shots21
5Corners5
14Fouls7
Shots
12Total Shots21
6On Target10
4Off Target4
2Blocked7
10Inside Box14
2Outside Box7
Passing
31%Possession69%
275Total Passes608
185Accurate Passes521
67%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls7
4Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Newcastle vs Manchester City

Newcastle and Manchester City drew 3-3 in Premier League on August 21, 2022.

Goals: İ. Gündoğan (5'), M. Almirón (28'), C. Wilson (39'), K. Trippier (54'), E. Haaland (61'), Bernardo Silva (64').

Manchester City controlled possession (69%) and registered 21 shots to 12.

The match was played at St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne.