Newcastle 0–4 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Manchester City

R. Sterling 86'

R. Mahrez 64'

João Cancelo 27'

Rúben Dias 5'

12/19/2021

Premier League · Round 18St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Newcastle39%

×Draw23%

Manchester City38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.61

Newcastle

1.63

Manchester City

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 31 away

2.04

creates per match

1.76

1.46

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Newcastle

2.04

Manchester City

1.76

allows per match

Newcastle

1.46

Manchester City

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Newcastle+0.00on par

Manchester City-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

62%

Newcastle or Manchester City

77%

Draw or Manchester City

61%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

19%

Manchester City wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

80%

Newcastle 2+ goals

48%

Newcastle 3+ goals

22%

Manchester City 1+ goals

80%

Manchester City 2+ goals

48%

Manchester City 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

51%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.21 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.04 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.63

Manchester City attack 1.76 + Newcastle defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Newcastle scores more

39%

level

23%

Manchester City scores more

38%

Newcastle at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

R. Mahrez

Manchester City · M

8.5

Match Events

5'

Rúben Dias↳ João Cancelo

21'

Isaac Hayden

25'

Rodri

27'

João Cancelo↳ R. Mahrez

30'

Bernardo Silva

46'

A. Saint-Maximin← J. Willock

61'

S. Longstaff← I. Hayden

64'

Riyad MahrezGoal confirmed

64'

R. Mahrez↳ O. Zinchenko

68'

Fernandinho← Rodri

70'

J. Stones← Rúben Dias

77'

C. Palmer← R. Mahrez

80'

J. Hendrick← M. Almirón

86'

R. Sterling↳ Gabriel Jesus

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleManchester

Overview

28%Possession72%

5Total Shots18

3Corners6

9Fouls6

Shots

5Total Shots18

1On Target7

4Off Target8

0Blocked3

2Inside Box16

3Outside Box2

Passing

28%Possession72%

265Total Passes709

215Accurate Passes646

81%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls6

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2