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Newcastle vs Everton — Premier League 2026

Newcastle
Newcastle
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Everton
Everton
12/28/2014Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19St. James' Park (Newcastle-upon-Tyne)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Newcastle51%
×Draw23%
Everton26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle
1.87
Everton
1.29

Newcastle creates 45% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 27 away

creates per match

Newcastle
2.04
Everton
1.13

allows per match

Newcastle
1.46
Everton
1.70

finishing

Newcastle+0.00on par
Everton-0.13scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Everton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw
74%
Newcastle or Everton
77%
Draw or Everton
49%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+
29%
Everton wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals
85%
Newcastle 2+ goals
56%
Newcastle 3+ goals
29%
Everton 1+ goals
72%
Everton 2+ goals
37%
Everton 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)
66%
Everton (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Everton away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.04 + Everton defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.87

Everton attack 1.13 + Newcastle defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Newcastle scores more
51%
level
23%
Everton scores more
26%

Newcastle at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newcastle vs Everton

Newcastle beat Everton 3-2 in Premier League on December 28, 2014.

The match was played at St. James' Park (Newcastle-upon-Tyne).