Newcastle 0–1 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Crystal Palace

L. Milivojević 81' (pen)

4/6/2019

Premier League · Round 33St James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Newcastle47%

×Draw24%

Crystal Palace29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.29

Newcastle

1.69

Crystal Palace

1.29

Newcastle creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 35 away

2.13

creates per match

1.21

1.38

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Newcastle

2.13

Crystal Palace

1.21

allows per match

Newcastle

1.38

Crystal Palace

1.26

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Newcastle-0.13scores less

Crystal Palace-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

71%

Newcastle or Crystal Palace

76%

Draw or Crystal Palace

53%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

25%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

82%

Newcastle 2+ goals

50%

Newcastle 3+ goals

24%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

72%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

37%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

61%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.13 + Crystal Palace defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.69

Crystal Palace attack 1.21 + Newcastle defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Newcastle scores more

47%

level

24%

Crystal Palace scores more

29%

Newcastle at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

Guaita

Crystal Palace · G

8.1

Match Events

45'

Martin Kelly

65'

P. Dummett← F. Lejeune

65'

C. Benteke← M. Batshuayi

73'

S. Dann← J. Tomkins

76'

J. Shelvey← Ki Sung-Yeung

79'

Isaac Hayden

81'

L. MilivojevićPenalty

85'

C. Kouyaté← A. Townsend

90'

Christian Benteke

90'

C. Atsu← M. Ritchie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleCrystal

Overview

53%Possession47%

18Total Shots3

9Corners4

12Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots3

5On Target1

9Off Target2

4Blocked0

11Inside Box3

7Outside Box0

Passing

53%Possession47%

436Total Passes392

362Accurate Passes297

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4