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Newcastle vs Crystal Palace — Premier League 2026

Newcastle
Newcastle
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
4/30/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 36St James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Newcastle47%
×Draw24%
Crystal Palace29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle
1.69
Crystal Palace
1.29

Newcastle creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 35 away

creates per match

Newcastle
2.13
Crystal Palace
1.21

allows per match

Newcastle
1.38
Crystal Palace
1.26

finishing

Newcastle-0.13scores less
Crystal Palace-0.12scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Crystal Palace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw
71%
Newcastle or Crystal Palace
76%
Draw or Crystal Palace
53%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+
25%
Crystal Palace wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals
82%
Newcastle 2+ goals
50%
Newcastle 3+ goals
24%
Crystal Palace 1+ goals
72%
Crystal Palace 2+ goals
37%
Crystal Palace 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)
61%
Crystal Palace (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.13 + Crystal Palace defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.69

Crystal Palace attack 1.21 + Newcastle defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Newcastle scores more
47%
level
24%
Crystal Palace scores more
29%

Newcastle at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newcastle vs Crystal Palace

Newcastle beat Crystal Palace 1-0 in Premier League on April 30, 2016.

The match was played at St James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne.