Newcastle 1–2 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Chelsea

Joselu 83'

D. Yedlin 87' (OG)

E. Hazard 76' (pen)

8/26/2018

Premier League · Round 3St James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Newcastle46%

×Draw23%

Chelsea31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.42

Newcastle

1.80

Chelsea

1.42

Newcastle creates 27% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 36 away

2.13

creates per match

1.45

1.38

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Newcastle

2.13

Chelsea

1.45

allows per match

Newcastle

1.38

Chelsea

1.48

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Newcastle-0.13scores less

Chelsea-0.01on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

69%

Newcastle or Chelsea

77%

Draw or Chelsea

54%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

25%

Chelsea wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

83%

Newcastle 2+ goals

54%

Newcastle 3+ goals

27%

Chelsea 1+ goals

76%

Chelsea 2+ goals

41%

Chelsea 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

60%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.48 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.13 + Chelsea defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.80

Chelsea attack 1.45 + Newcastle defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Newcastle scores more

46%

level

23%

Chelsea scores more

31%

Newcastle at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Hazard

Chelsea · F

7.8

Match Events

40'

Mateo Kovačić

62'

Joselu← S. Rondón

65'

Fabian Schär

65'

O. Giroud← Álvaro Morata

68'

Federico Fernández

69'

Willian← Pedro

70'

Matt Ritchie

73'

Ayoze Pérez← Jacob Murphy

76'

E. HazardPenalty

79'

Y. Muto← F. Schär

79'

R. Barkley← M. Kovačić

83'

Joselu↳ D. Yedlin

87'

D. YedlinOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleChelsea

Overview

18%Possession82%

6Total Shots15

4Corners5

16Fouls8

Shots

6Total Shots15

2On Target3

2Off Target7

2Blocked5

2Inside Box10

4Outside Box5

Passing

18%Possession82%

200Total Passes913

131Accurate Passes839

66%Pass Accuracy92%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2