Newcastle 1–1 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aston Villa

D. Gayle 68'

Ahmed El Mohamady 83'

6/24/2020

Premier League · Round 31St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Newcastle52%

×Draw23%

Aston Villa26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.27

Newcastle

1.88

Aston Villa

1.27

Newcastle creates 48% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 33 away

2.13

creates per match

1.16

1.38

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Newcastle

2.13

Aston Villa

1.16

allows per match

Newcastle

1.38

Aston Villa

1.64

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Newcastle-0.13scores less

Aston Villa+0.02on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

74%

Newcastle or Aston Villa

77%

Draw or Aston Villa

48%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

29%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

85%

Newcastle 2+ goals

56%

Newcastle 3+ goals

29%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

72%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

36%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

67%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.13 + Aston Villa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.88

Aston Villa attack 1.16 + Newcastle defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Newcastle scores more

52%

level

23%

Aston Villa scores more

26%

Newcastle at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Ahmed El Mohamady

Aston Villa · D

7.5

Match Events

45'

Douglas Luiz

59'

Jamaal Lascelles

64'

A. Carroll← Joelinton

67'

D. Gayle← M. Ritchie

68'

D. Gayle↳ A. Carroll

70'

K. Davis← Trézéguet

70'

C. Hourihane← A. El Ghazi

74'

Federico Fernández

77'

M. Nakamba← J. McGinn

77'

Ahmed El Mohamady← E. Konsa

83'

Ahmed El Mohamady↳ C. Hourihane

86'

V. Lazaro← M. Almirón

86'

N. Bentaleb← I. Hayden

90'

Kortney Hause

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleAston

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots14

6Corners9

15Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots14

3On Target2

4Off Target7

6Blocked5

4Inside Box7

9Outside Box7

Passing

52%Possession48%

416Total Passes369

320Accurate Passes285

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0