Newcastle Jets 3–1 Perth Glory: Result & Stats

Newcastle Jets

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Perth Glory

5/12/2022

Australia Cup · Play-offsMcDonald Jones Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Newcastle Jets52%

×Draw19%

Perth Glory29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newcastle JetsExpected goals in this matchPerth Glory

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.92

Newcastle Jets

2.58

Perth Glory

1.92

Newcastle Jets creates 34% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

2.50

creates per match

2.33

1.50

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Newcastle Jets

2.50

Perth Glory

2.33

allows per match

Newcastle Jets

1.50

Perth Glory

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newcastle Jets+0.00on par

Perth Glory+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle Jets ↓

Perth Glory →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Newcastle Jets or draw

71%

Newcastle Jets or Perth Glory

81%

Draw or Perth Glory

48%

Winning margin

Newcastle Jets wins by 2+

33%

Perth Glory wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Newcastle Jets 1+ goals

92%

Newcastle Jets 2+ goals

72%

Newcastle Jets 3+ goals

47%

Perth Glory 1+ goals

85%

Perth Glory 2+ goals

57%

Perth Glory 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Newcastle Jets (draw refunded)

64%

Perth Glory (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle Jets at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Perth Glory away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle Jets attack 2.50 + Perth Glory defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.58

Perth Glory attack 2.33 + Newcastle Jets defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Newcastle Jets scores more

52%

level

19%

Perth Glory scores more

29%

Newcastle Jets at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Newcastle Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff