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Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur — A-League 2018

Newcastle Jets
Newcastle Jets
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Macarthur
Macarthur
2/26/2022A-LeagueA-League · Round 16McDonald Jones Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Newcastle Jets44%
×Draw24%
Macarthur32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle Jets
1.70
Macarthur
1.43

Newcastle Jets creates 19% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 81 away

creates per match

Newcastle Jets
1.61
Macarthur
1.38

allows per match

Newcastle Jets
1.48
Macarthur
1.79

finishing

Newcastle Jets+0.00on par
Macarthur+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle Jets ↓

Macarthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Newcastle Jets or draw
68%
Newcastle Jets or Macarthur
76%
Draw or Macarthur
56%

Winning margin

Newcastle Jets wins by 2+
23%
Macarthur wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Newcastle Jets 1+ goals
82%
Newcastle Jets 2+ goals
51%
Newcastle Jets 3+ goals
24%
Macarthur 1+ goals
76%
Macarthur 2+ goals
42%
Macarthur 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Newcastle Jets (draw refunded)
58%
Macarthur (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle Jets at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.48 · 104 matches

Macarthur away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.79 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle Jets attack 1.61 + Macarthur defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.70

Macarthur attack 1.38 + Newcastle Jets defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Newcastle Jets scores more
44%
level
24%
Macarthur scores more
32%

Newcastle Jets at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Newcastle Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Newcastle Jets 2–2 Macarthur

Newcastle Jets and Macarthur drew 2-2 in A-League on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at McDonald Jones Stadium in Newcastle.