Newcastle Jets 0–1 Central Coast Mariners

Newcastle Jets

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Central Coast Mariners

3/2/2024

A-League · Round 5McDonald Jones Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Newcastle Jets42%

×Draw24%

Central Coast Mariners34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newcastle JetsExpected goals in this matchCentral Coast Mariners

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.45

Newcastle Jets

1.63

Central Coast Mariners

1.45

Newcastle Jets creates 12% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 109 away

1.61

creates per match

1.42

1.48

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Newcastle Jets

1.61

Central Coast Mariners

1.42

allows per match

Newcastle Jets

1.48

Central Coast Mariners

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newcastle Jets+0.00on par

Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle Jets ↓

Central Coast Mariners →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Newcastle Jets or draw

66%

Newcastle Jets or Central Coast Mariners

76%

Draw or Central Coast Mariners

58%

Winning margin

Newcastle Jets wins by 2+

21%

Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Newcastle Jets 1+ goals

80%

Newcastle Jets 2+ goals

48%

Newcastle Jets 3+ goals

22%

Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals

77%

Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals

42%

Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Newcastle Jets (draw refunded)

55%

Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle Jets at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.48 · 104 matches

Central Coast Mariners away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle Jets attack 1.61 + Central Coast Mariners defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.42 + Newcastle Jets defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Newcastle Jets scores more

42%

level

24%

Central Coast Mariners scores more

34%

Newcastle Jets at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Newcastle Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff