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Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar — Australia Cup 2021

Newcastle Jets
Newcastle Jets
AET
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Brisbane Roar
Brisbane Roaradvanced
8/14/2023Australia CupAustralia Cup · Round of 32Maitland Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Newcastle Jets35%
×Draw22%
Brisbane Roar43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle Jets
1.65
Brisbane Roar
1.85

Brisbane Roar creates 12% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Newcastle Jets
2.50
Brisbane Roar
2.20

allows per match

Newcastle Jets
1.50
Brisbane Roar
0.80

finishing

Newcastle Jets+0.00on par
Brisbane Roar+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle Jets ↓

Brisbane Roar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Newcastle Jets or draw
57%
Newcastle Jets or Brisbane Roar
78%
Draw or Brisbane Roar
65%

Winning margin

Newcastle Jets wins by 2+
17%
Brisbane Roar wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Newcastle Jets 1+ goals
81%
Newcastle Jets 2+ goals
49%
Newcastle Jets 3+ goals
23%
Brisbane Roar 1+ goals
84%
Brisbane Roar 2+ goals
55%
Brisbane Roar 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Newcastle Jets (draw refunded)
45%
Brisbane Roar (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle Jets at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Brisbane Roar away — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle Jets attack 2.50 + Brisbane Roar defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Brisbane Roar attack 2.20 + Newcastle Jets defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Newcastle Jets scores more
35%
level
22%
Brisbane Roar scores more
43%

Brisbane Roar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brisbane Roar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Australia Cup: Newcastle Jets 2–2 Brisbane Roar

Newcastle Jets and Brisbane Roar drew 2-2 in Australia Cup on August 14, 2023.

The match was played at Maitland Sports Ground in Maitland.