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Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar — A-League 2018

Newcastle Jets
Newcastle Jets
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Brisbane Roar
Brisbane Roar
12/28/2019A-LeagueA-League · Round 12McDonald Jones Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Newcastle Jets46%
×Draw24%
Brisbane Roar30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle Jets
1.67
Brisbane Roar
1.31

Newcastle Jets creates 27% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 105 away

creates per match

Newcastle Jets
1.61
Brisbane Roar
1.15

allows per match

Newcastle Jets
1.48
Brisbane Roar
1.72

finishing

Newcastle Jets+0.00on par
Brisbane Roar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle Jets ↓

Brisbane Roar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Newcastle Jets or draw
70%
Newcastle Jets or Brisbane Roar
76%
Draw or Brisbane Roar
54%

Winning margin

Newcastle Jets wins by 2+
24%
Brisbane Roar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Newcastle Jets 1+ goals
81%
Newcastle Jets 2+ goals
50%
Newcastle Jets 3+ goals
23%
Brisbane Roar 1+ goals
73%
Brisbane Roar 2+ goals
38%
Brisbane Roar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Newcastle Jets (draw refunded)
60%
Brisbane Roar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle Jets at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.48 · 104 matches

Brisbane Roar away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle Jets attack 1.61 + Brisbane Roar defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

Brisbane Roar attack 1.15 + Newcastle Jets defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Newcastle Jets scores more
46%
level
24%
Brisbane Roar scores more
30%

Newcastle Jets at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Newcastle Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Newcastle Jets 1–1 Brisbane Roar

Newcastle Jets and Brisbane Roar drew 1-1 in A-League on December 28, 2019.

The match was played at McDonald Jones Stadium in Newcastle.