Newcastle Jets 0–2 Adelaide United: Result & Stats

Newcastle Jets

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Adelaide United

7/30/2022

Australia Cup · Round of 32McDonald Jones Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Newcastle Jets49%

×Draw22%

Adelaide United29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newcastle JetsExpected goals in this matchAdelaide United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.46

Newcastle Jets

1.96

Adelaide United

1.46

Newcastle Jets creates 34% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.50

creates per match

1.43

1.50

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Newcastle Jets

2.50

Adelaide United

1.43

allows per match

Newcastle Jets

1.50

Adelaide United

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newcastle Jets+0.00on par

Adelaide United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle Jets ↓

Adelaide United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Newcastle Jets or draw

71%

Newcastle Jets or Adelaide United

78%

Draw or Adelaide United

51%

Winning margin

Newcastle Jets wins by 2+

28%

Adelaide United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Newcastle Jets 1+ goals

86%

Newcastle Jets 2+ goals

58%

Newcastle Jets 3+ goals

31%

Adelaide United 1+ goals

77%

Adelaide United 2+ goals

43%

Adelaide United 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Newcastle Jets (draw refunded)

63%

Adelaide United (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle Jets at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Adelaide United away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle Jets attack 2.50 + Adelaide United defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.96

Adelaide United attack 1.43 + Newcastle Jets defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Newcastle Jets scores more

49%

level

22%

Adelaide United scores more

29%

Newcastle Jets at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Newcastle Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff