Newcastle Jets FC 3–2 Western Sydney

Newcastle Jets FC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Western Sydney

A. Thurgate 82'

V. Janjetović 70' (OG)

R. O'Donovan 63'

K. Baccus 74'

R. Mahazi 43'

4/6/2019

A-League · Round 24McDonald Jones Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Newcastle Jets FC42%

×Draw23%

Western Sydney34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newcastle Jets FCExpected goals in this matchWestern Sydney

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.50

Newcastle Jets FC

1.69

Western Sydney

1.50

Newcastle Jets FC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 105 away

1.61

creates per match

1.51

1.48

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Newcastle Jets FC

1.61

Western Sydney

1.51

allows per match

Newcastle Jets FC

1.48

Western Sydney

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newcastle Jets FC+0.00on par

Western Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle Jets FC ↓

Western Sydney →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Newcastle Jets FC or draw

66%

Newcastle Jets FC or Western Sydney

77%

Draw or Western Sydney

58%

Winning margin

Newcastle Jets FC wins by 2+

22%

Western Sydney wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Newcastle Jets FC 1+ goals

82%

Newcastle Jets FC 2+ goals

50%

Newcastle Jets FC 3+ goals

24%

Western Sydney 1+ goals

78%

Western Sydney 2+ goals

44%

Western Sydney 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Newcastle Jets FC (draw refunded)

55%

Western Sydney (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle Jets FC at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.48 · 104 matches

Western Sydney away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle Jets FC attack 1.61 + Western Sydney defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.69

Western Sydney attack 1.51 + Newcastle Jets FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Newcastle Jets FC scores more

42%

level

23%

Western Sydney scores more

34%

Newcastle Jets FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Newcastle Jets FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

K. Baccus

Western Sydney · M

8.0

Match Events

43'

R. Mahazi↳ A. Baumjohann

46'

K. Sheppard← R. Vargas

52'

Keanu Baccus

62'

A. Majok← A. Baumjohann

63'

R. O'Donovan↳ D. Georgievski

66'

R. Bonevacia← K. Yeboah

67'

A. Thurgate← J. Champness

70'

V. JanjetovićOwn goal

74'

K. Baccus↳ R. Bonevacia

79'

I. Vujica← D. Georgievski

82'

A. Thurgate

86'

G. Gallifuoco← R. Mahazi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleWestern

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots15

4Corners8

6Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots15

3On Target6

2Off Target6

2Blocked3

7Inside Box9

0Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

424Total Passes442

313Accurate Passes336

74%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls15

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides3