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Newcastle Jets FC vs Sydney FC — A-League 2018

Newcastle Jets FC
Newcastle Jets FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sydney FC
Sydney FC
4/27/2019A-LeagueA-League · Round 27McDonald Jones Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Newcastle Jets FC37%
×Draw25%
Sydney FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle Jets FC
1.46
Sydney FC
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 112 away

creates per match

Newcastle Jets FC
1.61
Sydney FC
1.46

allows per match

Newcastle Jets FC
1.48
Sydney FC
1.30

finishing

Newcastle Jets FC+0.00on par
Sydney FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle Jets FC ↓

Sydney FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Newcastle Jets FC or draw
62%
Newcastle Jets FC or Sydney FC
75%
Draw or Sydney FC
63%

Winning margin

Newcastle Jets FC wins by 2+
18%
Sydney FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Newcastle Jets FC 1+ goals
77%
Newcastle Jets FC 2+ goals
43%
Newcastle Jets FC 3+ goals
18%
Sydney FC 1+ goals
77%
Sydney FC 2+ goals
43%
Sydney FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Newcastle Jets FC (draw refunded)
50%
Sydney FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle Jets FC at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.48 · 104 matches

Sydney FC away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.30 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle Jets FC attack 1.61 + Sydney FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sydney FC attack 1.46 + Newcastle Jets FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Newcastle Jets FC scores more
37%
level
25%
Sydney FC scores more
38%

Sydney FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sydney FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newcastle Jets FC vs Sydney FC

Newcastle Jets FC beat Sydney FC 2-0 in A-League on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at McDonald Jones Stadium in Newcastle.