Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Newcastle Jets FC vs Perth Glory FC — A-League 2018

Newcastle Jets FC
Newcastle Jets FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Perth Glory FC
Perth Glory FC
12/16/2018A-LeagueA-League · Round 8McDonald Jones Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Newcastle Jets FC46%
×Draw24%
Perth Glory FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle Jets FC
1.72
Perth Glory FC
1.35

Newcastle Jets FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 106 away

creates per match

Newcastle Jets FC
1.61
Perth Glory FC
1.23

allows per match

Newcastle Jets FC
1.48
Perth Glory FC
1.83

finishing

Newcastle Jets FC+0.00on par
Perth Glory FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle Jets FC ↓

Perth Glory FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Newcastle Jets FC or draw
70%
Newcastle Jets FC or Perth Glory FC
76%
Draw or Perth Glory FC
54%

Winning margin

Newcastle Jets FC wins by 2+
24%
Perth Glory FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Newcastle Jets FC 1+ goals
82%
Newcastle Jets FC 2+ goals
51%
Newcastle Jets FC 3+ goals
25%
Perth Glory FC 1+ goals
74%
Perth Glory FC 2+ goals
39%
Perth Glory FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Newcastle Jets FC (draw refunded)
60%
Perth Glory FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle Jets FC at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.48 · 104 matches

Perth Glory FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.83 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle Jets FC attack 1.61 + Perth Glory FC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.72

Perth Glory FC attack 1.23 + Newcastle Jets FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Newcastle Jets FC scores more
46%
level
24%
Perth Glory FC scores more
30%

Newcastle Jets FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Newcastle Jets FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Newcastle Jets FC 0–2 Perth Glory FC

Perth Glory FC beat Newcastle Jets FC 2-0 in A-League on December 16, 2018.

The match was played at McDonald Jones Stadium in Newcastle.