Newcastle Jets FC 2–3 Central Coast Mariners FC

Newcastle Jets FC

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Central Coast Mariners FC

R. Vargas 81'

R. O'Donovan 74'

C. Pain 67'

J. Karacan 64'

J. Murray 51'

3/16/2019

A-League · Round 22McDonald Jones Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Newcastle Jets FC42%

×Draw24%

Central Coast Mariners FC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newcastle Jets FCExpected goals in this matchCentral Coast Mariners FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.45

Newcastle Jets FC

1.63

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.45

Newcastle Jets FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 109 away

1.61

creates per match

1.42

1.48

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Newcastle Jets FC

1.61

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.42

allows per match

Newcastle Jets FC

1.48

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newcastle Jets FC+0.00on par

Central Coast Mariners FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle Jets FC ↓

Central Coast Mariners FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Newcastle Jets FC or draw

66%

Newcastle Jets FC or Central Coast Mariners FC

76%

Draw or Central Coast Mariners FC

58%

Winning margin

Newcastle Jets FC wins by 2+

21%

Central Coast Mariners FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Newcastle Jets FC 1+ goals

80%

Newcastle Jets FC 2+ goals

48%

Newcastle Jets FC 3+ goals

22%

Central Coast Mariners FC 1+ goals

77%

Central Coast Mariners FC 2+ goals

42%

Central Coast Mariners FC 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Newcastle Jets FC (draw refunded)

55%

Central Coast Mariners FC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle Jets FC at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.48 · 104 matches

Central Coast Mariners FC away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle Jets FC attack 1.61 + Central Coast Mariners FC defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Central Coast Mariners FC attack 1.42 + Newcastle Jets FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Newcastle Jets FC scores more

42%

level

24%

Central Coast Mariners FC scores more

34%

Newcastle Jets FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Newcastle Jets FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

J. Murray

Central Coast Mariners FC · F

8.0

Match Events

35'

Roy O'Donovan

43'

Nick Cowburn

51'

J. Murray↳ M. Millar

59'

R. Vargas← M. Ridenton

64'

J. Karacan

65'

K. Appiah-Kubi← Jair

67'

C. Pain↳ J. Murray

68'

J. Nisbet← T. Hiariej

72'

K. Sheppard← S. Ugarković

74'

R. O'Donovan↳ L. Jackson

76'

M. Shabow← J. Melling

81'

R. Vargas

83'

Ben Kennedy

90'

Nigel Boogaard

90'

P. Kekeris← S. Mallon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleCentral

Overview

66%Possession34%

24Total Shots5

3Corners2

12Fouls7

Shots

24Total Shots5

7On Target4

8Off Target1

9Blocked0

14Inside Box3

10Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

561Total Passes296

444Accurate Passes191

79%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls7

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0

A-League: Newcastle Jets FC 2–3 Central Coast Mariners FC

Central Coast Mariners FC beat Newcastle Jets FC 3-2 in A-League on March 16, 2019.

Goals: J. Murray (51'), J. Karacan (64'), C. Pain (67'), R. O'Donovan (74'), R. Vargas (81').

Newcastle Jets FC controlled possession (66%) and registered 24 shots to 5.

The match was played at McDonald Jones Stadium in Newcastle.

Newcastle Jets FC vs Central Coast Mariners FC — A-League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

A-League: Newcastle Jets FC 2–3 Central Coast Mariners FC