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Newcastle Jets FC vs Central Coast Mariners FC — A-League 2018

Newcastle Jets FC
Newcastle Jets FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Central Coast Mariners FC
Central Coast Mariners FC
K. Sheppard 54'
1/23/2019A-LeagueA-League · Round 15McDonald Jones Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Newcastle Jets FC42%
×Draw24%
Central Coast Mariners FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle Jets FC
1.63
Central Coast Mariners FC
1.45

Newcastle Jets FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 109 away

creates per match

Newcastle Jets FC
1.61
Central Coast Mariners FC
1.42

allows per match

Newcastle Jets FC
1.48
Central Coast Mariners FC
1.65

finishing

Newcastle Jets FC+0.00on par
Central Coast Mariners FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle Jets FC ↓

Central Coast Mariners FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Newcastle Jets FC or draw
66%
Newcastle Jets FC or Central Coast Mariners FC
76%
Draw or Central Coast Mariners FC
58%

Winning margin

Newcastle Jets FC wins by 2+
21%
Central Coast Mariners FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Newcastle Jets FC 1+ goals
80%
Newcastle Jets FC 2+ goals
48%
Newcastle Jets FC 3+ goals
22%
Central Coast Mariners FC 1+ goals
77%
Central Coast Mariners FC 2+ goals
42%
Central Coast Mariners FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Newcastle Jets FC (draw refunded)
55%
Central Coast Mariners FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle Jets FC at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.48 · 104 matches

Central Coast Mariners FC away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle Jets FC attack 1.61 + Central Coast Mariners FC defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Central Coast Mariners FC attack 1.42 + Newcastle Jets FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Newcastle Jets FC scores more
42%
level
24%
Central Coast Mariners FC scores more
34%

Newcastle Jets FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Newcastle Jets FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
J. AspropotamitisCentral Coast Mariners FCCentral Coast Mariners FC · D
8.0

Match Events

36'
Jack Clisby
46'
J. Nisbet← T. Hiariej
54'
K. Sheppard↳ R. O'Donovan
62'
R. Vargas← N. Cowburn
66'
C. Pain← M. McGlinchey
80'
P. Kekeris← J. Clisby
81'
Jair← K. Sheppard
85'
M. Austin← R. ODonovan

Possession

52%Newcastle

Shots

15Newcastle

Pass accuracy

51%Newcastle

Statistics

NewcastleCentral
Overview
52%Possession48%
15Total Shots19
5Corners8
9Fouls8
Shots
15Total Shots19
5On Target5
7Off Target8
3Blocked6
8Inside Box14
7Outside Box5
Passing
52%Possession48%
436Total Passes380
312Accurate Passes266
72%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls8
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
5Offsides0

Match Recap: Newcastle Jets FC vs Central Coast Mariners FC

Newcastle Jets FC beat Central Coast Mariners FC 1-0 in A-League on January 23, 2019.

Goals: K. Sheppard (54').

Newcastle Jets FC controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 19.

The match was played at McDonald Jones Stadium in Newcastle.