New York Red Bulls 3–1 CF Montreal: Result & Stats

New York Red Bulls

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

CF Montreal

4/14/2018

Major League Soccer · Round 7Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

New York Red Bulls46%

×Draw23%

CF Montreal31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New York Red BullsExpected goals in this matchCF Montreal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.44

New York Red Bulls

1.80

CF Montreal

1.44

New York Red Bulls creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

1.84

creates per match

1.39

1.49

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

New York Red Bulls

1.84

CF Montreal

1.39

allows per match

New York Red Bulls

1.49

CF Montreal

1.76

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

New York Red Bulls+0.05on par

CF Montreal+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York Red Bulls ↓

CF Montreal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

New York Red Bulls or draw

69%

New York Red Bulls or CF Montreal

77%

Draw or CF Montreal

54%

Winning margin

New York Red Bulls wins by 2+

25%

CF Montreal wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

New York Red Bulls 1+ goals

83%

New York Red Bulls 2+ goals

54%

New York Red Bulls 3+ goals

27%

CF Montreal 1+ goals

76%

CF Montreal 2+ goals

42%

CF Montreal 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

New York Red Bulls (draw refunded)

60%

CF Montreal (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York Red Bulls at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.49 · 19 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York Red Bulls attack 1.84 + CF Montreal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.80

CF Montreal attack 1.39 + New York Red Bulls defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

New York Red Bulls scores more

46%

level

23%

CF Montreal scores more

31%

New York Red Bulls at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "New York Red Bulls will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: New York Red Bulls vs CF Montreal

New York Red Bulls beat CF Montreal 3-1 in Major League Soccer on April 14, 2018.

The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Harrison.

New York Red Bulls vs CF Montreal — Major League Soccer 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: New York Red Bulls vs CF Montreal