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New York RB III vs Manhattan — USL League Two 2018

New York RB III
New York RB III
PST
00:00
Manhattan
Manhattan
7/7/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 49Red Bull Academy Training Field 1 (Whippany, New Jersey)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

New York RB III49%
×Draw23%
Manhattan28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York RB III
1.79
Manhattan
1.30

New York RB III creates 38% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 43 away

creates per match

New York RB III
2.09
Manhattan
1.79

allows per match

New York RB III
0.82
Manhattan
1.49

finishing

New York RB III+0.00on par
Manhattan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York RB III ↓

Manhattan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

New York RB III or draw
72%
New York RB III or Manhattan
77%
Draw or Manhattan
51%

Winning margin

New York RB III wins by 2+
27%
Manhattan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

New York RB III 1+ goals
83%
New York RB III 2+ goals
53%
New York RB III 3+ goals
26%
Manhattan 1+ goals
73%
Manhattan 2+ goals
37%
Manhattan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

New York RB III (draw refunded)
64%
Manhattan (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York RB III at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Manhattan away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.49 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York RB III attack 2.09 + Manhattan defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.79

Manhattan attack 1.79 + New York RB III defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

New York RB III scores more
49%
level
23%
Manhattan scores more
28%

New York RB III at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "New York RB III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New York RB III face Manhattan (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with New York RB III hosting Manhattan. Match starts July 7, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

New York RB III host Manhattan at Red Bull Academy Training Field 1 (Whippany, New Jersey).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.