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New York RB III vs FA Euro New York — USL League Two 2018

New York RB III
New York RB III
PST
23:30
FA Euro New York
FA Euro New York
5/26/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 12Red Bull Academy Training Field 1 (Whippany, New Jersey)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

New York RB III64%
×Draw20%
FA Euro New York16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York RB III
2.17
FA Euro New York
0.99

New York RB III creates 119% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 25 away

creates per match

New York RB III
2.09
FA Euro New York
1.16

allows per match

New York RB III
0.82
FA Euro New York
2.24

finishing

New York RB III+0.00on par
FA Euro New York+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York RB III ↓

FA Euro New York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

New York RB III or draw
84%
New York RB III or FA Euro New York
80%
Draw or FA Euro New York
36%

Winning margin

New York RB III wins by 2+
41%
FA Euro New York wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

New York RB III 1+ goals
89%
New York RB III 2+ goals
64%
New York RB III 3+ goals
36%
FA Euro New York 1+ goals
63%
FA Euro New York 2+ goals
26%
FA Euro New York 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

New York RB III (draw refunded)
80%
FA Euro New York (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York RB III at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

FA Euro New York away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York RB III attack 2.09 + FA Euro New York defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.17

FA Euro New York attack 1.16 + New York RB III defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

New York RB III scores more
64%
level
20%
FA Euro New York scores more
16%

New York RB III at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "New York RB III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New York RB III face FA Euro New York (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with New York RB III hosting FA Euro New York. Match starts May 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

New York RB III host FA Euro New York at Red Bull Academy Training Field 1 (Whippany, New Jersey).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.