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New York RB III vs Cedar Stars Rush — USL League Two 2018

New York RB III
New York RB III
PST
23:30
Cedar Stars Rush
Cedar Stars Rush
6/9/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 25Red Bull Academy Training Field 1 (Whippany, New Jersey)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

New York RB III53%
×Draw22%
Cedar Stars Rush25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York RB III
1.90
Cedar Stars Rush
1.23

New York RB III creates 54% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 43 away

creates per match

New York RB III
2.09
Cedar Stars Rush
1.65

allows per match

New York RB III
0.82
Cedar Stars Rush
1.70

finishing

New York RB III+0.00on par
Cedar Stars Rush+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York RB III ↓

Cedar Stars Rush →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

New York RB III or draw
75%
New York RB III or Cedar Stars Rush
78%
Draw or Cedar Stars Rush
47%

Winning margin

New York RB III wins by 2+
30%
Cedar Stars Rush wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

New York RB III 1+ goals
85%
New York RB III 2+ goals
56%
New York RB III 3+ goals
29%
Cedar Stars Rush 1+ goals
71%
Cedar Stars Rush 2+ goals
35%
Cedar Stars Rush 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

New York RB III (draw refunded)
68%
Cedar Stars Rush (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York RB III at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Cedar Stars Rush away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.70 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York RB III attack 2.09 + Cedar Stars Rush defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.90

Cedar Stars Rush attack 1.65 + New York RB III defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

New York RB III scores more
53%
level
22%
Cedar Stars Rush scores more
25%

New York RB III at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "New York RB III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: New York RB III host Cedar Stars Rush

June 9, 2020: New York RB III take on Cedar Stars Rush in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

New York RB III host Cedar Stars Rush at Red Bull Academy Training Field 1 (Whippany, New Jersey).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.