Utrecht 3–3 Feyenoord: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

Utrecht

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Feyenoord

S. Haller 84', 2'

G. Troupée 52'

M. Kramer 90+9'

N. Jørgensen 90'

D. Kuijt 4'

11/27/2016

Eredivisie · Round 14Stadion Galgenwaard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Utrecht35%

×Draw25%

Feyenoord40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UtrechtExpected goals in this matchFeyenoord

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.47

Utrecht

1.37

Feyenoord

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 30 away

1.67

creates per match

1.84

1.10

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Utrecht

1.67

Feyenoord

1.84

allows per match

Utrecht

1.10

Feyenoord

1.07

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Utrecht+0.12scores more

Feyenoord-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrecht ↓

Feyenoord →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Utrecht or draw

60%

Utrecht or Feyenoord

75%

Draw or Feyenoord

65%

Winning margin

Utrecht wins by 2+

16%

Feyenoord wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Utrecht 1+ goals

75%

Utrecht 2+ goals

40%

Utrecht 3+ goals

16%

Feyenoord 1+ goals

77%

Feyenoord 2+ goals

43%

Feyenoord 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Utrecht (draw refunded)

47%

Feyenoord (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utrecht at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.10 · 38 matches

Feyenoord away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utrecht attack 1.67 + Feyenoord defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.37

Feyenoord attack 1.84 + Utrecht defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Utrecht scores more

35%

level

25%

Feyenoord scores more

40%

Feyenoord at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Feyenoord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

S. Haller

Utrecht · F

8.3

Match Events

2'

S. Haller↳ N. Barazite

4'

D. Kuijt

39'

Karim El Ahmadi

52'

G. Troupée

72'

B. Basaçikoglu← J. Toornstra

75'

D. Jensen← R. Ruiter

81'

Bilal Başaçıkoğlu

84'

P. Joosten← R. Zivkovic

84'

S. Haller

90+3'

M. Koch← Robin van der Meer

90+3'

M. Kramer← J. van der Heijden

90'

N. Jørgensen↳ B. Basaçikoglu

90+9'

M. Kramer↳ N. Jørgensen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UtrechtFeyenoord

Overview

46%Possession54%

14Total Shots11

5Corners5

8Fouls19

Shots

14Total Shots11

7On Target3

7Off Target5

0Blocked3

8Inside Box7

6Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

421Total Passes470

330Accurate Passes374

78%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls19

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2