Yokohama FC 2–1 Kataller Toyama: Result & Stats

Yokohama FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kataller Toyama

M. Kurotsu 52'

T. Okubo 18'

T. Funatsu 36'

6/22/2013

J2 League · Round 20NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Yokohama FC52%

×Draw29%

Kataller Toyama19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yokohama FCExpected goals in this matchKataller Toyama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.69

Yokohama FC

1.33

Kataller Toyama

0.69

Yokohama FC creates 93% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 21 away

1.29

creates per match

0.81

0.57

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Yokohama FC

1.29

Kataller Toyama

0.81

allows per match

Yokohama FC

0.57

Kataller Toyama

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Kataller Toyama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Kataller Toyama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw

81%

Yokohama FC or Kataller Toyama

71%

Draw or Kataller Toyama

48%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

25%

Kataller Toyama wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

74%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

38%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

15%

Kataller Toyama 1+ goals

50%

Kataller Toyama 2+ goals

15%

Kataller Toyama 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

73%

Kataller Toyama (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Kataller Toyama away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.29 + Kataller Toyama defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Kataller Toyama attack 0.81 + Yokohama FC defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Yokohama FC scores more

52%

level

29%

Kataller Toyama scores more

19%

Yokohama FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

36'

52'

60'

66'

67'

77'

78'

Yokohama

Kataller

41

Morita

19

▼

Ikehata

3

Mikuriya

5

⚽

Funatsu

30

Kimura

32

Kuniyoshi

26

▼

7

11

15

20

▼

1

27

4

2

7

40

▼

36

14

8

39

⚽

▼

Okubo

9

⚽

Kurotsu

60'▲Y. Tahara←▼T. Okubo

78'▲K. Miura←▼S. Terada

Yokohama FC substitutes

34Tahara11Miura3Morishita6Takachi17Nakazato19Onose26Shibasaki

66'▲K. Kimoto←▼S. Oyama

67'▲T. Kurobe←▼K. Mine

77'▲Y. Yada←▼Y. Ikehata

Kataller Toyama substitutes

17Kimoto9Kurobe16Yada1Iida6Mori24Yang28Muramatsu